TARGET2 imblances are double what the ECB reports
There has been long and ongoing debate about the nature of the sizeable loans and deposits that the Eurozone national central banks (NCBs) run with one another within the TARGET2 payment system. The debate has overlooked that the balances are nearly double what the European Central Bank (ECB) […]
ECB programmes have created a major risk for Eurozone member states
The programmes of the European Central Bank (ECB) are extensive, and involve greater risks than the ECB can bear, it being very thinly capitalized. Even modest losses on its programmes would require it to be recapitalized by its Eurozone shareholders – the national central banks […]
Net Zero is a perfect cover story for the EIB and EIF
Net Zero is proving to be a good cover story for the European Investment Bank Group to create huge financial liabilities for the EU taxpayer. The amount looks set to exceed €1.2 trillion by the end of the current EU budget period in 2027.
This […]
Misleading account at the European Stability Mechanism
The European Stability Mechanism is the main bailout mechanism behind the euro. Croatia recently joined it upon adopting the euro. The ESM uses two accounting tricks to make it appear larger and more robust than it actually is, disguising that it lacks the firepower to deal with a major […]
EU supranationals harbour major risks for member states
The structures of the EU and Eurozone have allowed the creation of a series of supranational entities that have taken on debts whilst having little financial strength of their own: their creditworthiness depends on guarantees or capital calls from member states, without the extent of the member states’ […]
Rating agencies discriminate against the UK
Public credit rating agencies have not been even-handed in their treatment of the UK compared to EU member states, given the large shadow debts and contingent liabilities that weigh on the latter.
This is explained in the newly-released book ‘The shadow liabilities of EU Member States, and the threat they pose […]
Public credit rating agencies over-rate EU issuers
The public credit ratings of EU/Eurozone member states are inflated, because the credit rating agencies have not factored in the significant shadow debts and other financial liabilities bearing down on the respective member state’s debt service capacity. Total financial liabilities are much higher than these agencies appear to recognize.
This […]
Germany cannot afford all the EU/Eurozone debts
Global debt markets appear comfortable to absorb all of the bonds issued by the European Union for its €750 billion Coronavirus Recovery Fund on the basis that ‘it all tracks back onto Germany’. This is true: the guarantee structure behind the EU’s debts makes each member state liable for […]
EU and Eurozone break global debt rules
The EU and its member states position themselves as a cornerstone of the rules-based international order, but they break its financial rules in both letter and spirit by failing to fully report their financial liabilities. The key measure tracked by Eurostat – ‘General government gross debt’ – is circumvented […]
EU/Eurozone debts: a risk to global financial stability
EU and Eurozone member states understated their debts at the end of 2021 by 44% of EU GDP and their total liabilities by 70%. This represents a major risk to global financial stability, as the understatement causes shortfalls of capital and collateral at the financial institutions that do […]