Some forgotten Benefits of Brexit that need to be known

Most of my contribution appeared on Facts4EU.org

Published on 11 February 2022

On the second anniversary of the UK’s leaving the EU, it was worth relecting on what had been gained, even if Theresa May and now Boris Johnson could claim very little credit for it.

Here were my First Eleven of benefits, which made up the bulk […]

IREF January 2022 Newsletter – Euro financing, a strategy for EU survival

First published on en.irefeurope.org

Published on 8 February 2022

In recent times, the EU authority has been challenged by Romania and Poland, both of whom have asserted the primacy of their domestic laws over EU treaty law in certain areas.   Hungary is also a well-known thorn in its side.  Given these threats, and the reputational sleight of […]

New EU taxes are vital to cover the cost of its ‘invisible’ Coronavirus Recovery Fund debts – but at what cost to member states?

This article was first published on brexit-watch.org

Published on 4 February 2022

Facts4EU.Org has revealed that the EU, in Christmas week, floated the concept of new taxes to bring in an amount of €380 billion between 2026 and 2030, of which €85 billion would flow to Brussels. €247 billion of the new taxes are carbon-related, and €133 […]

Invisible Eurozone liabilities require action by global financial regulators

TARGET2: scale of invisible Eurozone liabilities demands action by global financial regulators

Published on 12 December 2021

We recently had a blog published by Politeia about the lack of transparency in the accounting for the debts of EU/Eurozone member states. The member states’ contingent liability to backstop the debts of the EU is an example. Member states […]

Rising Debt, Greater Risk – The EU’s invisible accounting system

Published on 10 December 2021

The Eurosystem’s balance sheet now shows that its assets of €12 trillion exceed the Eurozone’s 2020 GDP of €11.4 trillion. This is attributable to the emergency response to Covid by the European Central Bank (ECB), who both created the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (the PEPP), extended the programme of unsecured loans […]

Technical blog on the Eurozone’s Hidden Debt: A Dangerous legacy of EU governance – Politeia

Published on 23 September 2021

You can DOWNLOAD HERE the technical blog that accompanies the Politeia article on extrapolating lessons for the Eurozone, UK and global banking systems from the proposed merger of UniCredit and Monta dei Paschi di Siena.

The case raises difficult questions about whether any meaningful re-capitalization of banking systems has occurred since the […]

The Eurozone’s Hidden Debt: A Dangerous legacy of EU governance – Politeia

Published on 23 September 2021

As Italy’s oldest bank is poised to merge with its second largest, Bob Lyddon considers the failure of Eurozone governance and its potential consequences –   from which the UK is not immune

The UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement (2019) with its Northern Ireland Protocol remains one problematic matter of unfinished Brexit business.  Less widely […]

No-one can know the size of the Brexit divorce bill, and it won’t be finalised until 2028, or for decades after that

Two of the key patagraphs in the Withdrawal Treaty itself

Published on 20 July 2021

What are HM Treasury and the EU playing at? Their dispute rumbles on over whether the Brexit divorce bill is the EU’s estimate of £41bn or HM Treasury’s (or rather the Office for Budget Responsibility’s) of £35-39bn.

The discussion feels phoney. The quoted […]

How worried should we still be about the Brexit divorce bill?

This is the actual agreement…

Published on 19 July 2021

Below is the text of an article we had published on CapX last week about the bunfight between HM Treasury and Brussels on the supposed size of the Brexit divorce bill: in short, neither of them can know for sure what it is because of the loopholes […]

The ECB and the PEPP: why are the credit ratings of EU/Eurozone public sector issuers inflated by as many as four notches?

Published on 26 April 2021

The discussions and calls following the launch of my Bruges Group paper “The ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme” surfaced two areas for further examination.

One was the “pot calling the kettle black” issue: why is the UK structurally and materially in a superior position (even if we have the wrong direction-of-travel and […]