Published on 12th November 2025

We have put together a summary of the numbers contained in our report published in October 2025 by IREF – the Institute for Research in Economic and Fiscal Issues – entitled ‘The United Kingdom as a sandbox for state-directed investment: major increase in ‘shadow debt’, and in the ‘shadow taxation’ required to service that debt’.

You can download the summary here.

The UK’s government’s plans envisage new ‘shadow borrowing’ of £1.64 trillion – or 58% of 2024 UK GDP.

Given the leveraged finance templates through which this borrowing will be taken on, the servicing and repayment of this ‘shadow debt’ will require £6.7 trillion of new ‘shadow taxation’ to be imposed on UK businesses and individuals over a 30-year period.

That is 234% of 2024 UK GDP.