Flatlining UK GDP masks a deep recession in the private sector

Published on 14th March 2026

The UK economy’s performance in January should not have come as such a surprise to numerous ‘economic analysts’.

November GDP was boosted by accountancy advice, as people tried to predict and mitigate the measures in Labour’s November 2025 Budget.

December GDP will have ticked up thanks to Christmas.

Now we are back in stable […]

UK government’s plans to track and de-risk its own ‘shadow debt’ show the costs of the Net Zero transition will be imposed directly onto businesses and consumers

Published on 25 February 2026 and as previously published on 17 February 2026 by IREF (as an Online Article on https://en.irefeurope.org)

Introduction

The UK Budget papers of November 2025 acknowledge the funding models through which the government plans to increase the liabilities of UK taxpayers.

These funding models are designed to circumvent the government’s borrowing the money itself […]

The UK’s and EU’s Net Zero policies threaten to destroy their economies in the face of Trump’s oil-led US revival at US$50-per-barrel

Published on 12 February 2026 and as previously published by IREF Europe on 10 February 2026 (within Online Articles on https://en.irefeurope.org)

Introduction

The US is on the move and the geopolitical scenario has moved quickly away from the certainties of the last ten to fifteen years. Oil could come down to a price well below US$50-per-barrel, […]

The UK’s November 2025 Budget and ‘Securonomics’

Published on 9 February 2026 and as previously published by IREF Europe on 28 January 2026 (within Online Articles on https://en.irefeurope.org)

Introduction

The UK government’s November 2025 Budget supplied ample corroboration of our report published by IREF in October 2025 (‘the report’), showing that the governing Labour Party plans to greatly expand the state’s direction of the […]

Angela Rayner is waiting in the wings for a recall to Starmer’s front bench – or even directly into Number 10 – so just one or two more questions about the flat in Hove…

Published on 6 February 2026 (as previously published on 31 January 2026 by https://conservativepost.com)

Introduction

Angela Rayner has not stopped being ‘on manoeuvres’ since her removal as Deputy Prime Minister for failing to adhere to the Ministerial Code in the matter of paying the correct Stamp Duty on her flat purchase in Hove.

She must fancy her chances […]

Denial of democracy in Norfolk threatens to sink the Tory ship

Published on 24th January 2026

Once again a letter published in the Daily Telegraph, which goes very well with the one preceding it, from a correspondent in Bergh Apton.

Last week’s letter attested to my intention to stay on the Tory ship until it sank; this week it has.

The historic judgement of North Norfolk on the sacking/defection of Robert Jenrick from Conservative to Reform

Published on 16th January 2026

My letter published in the Daily Telegraph of today’s date.

UPDATED: Is there a common understanding of the OBR statement in 2021 that Brexit would cause a ‘long-run’ 4% loss of GDP?

Revised calculations over 15 years from 2016

Published on 2 December 2025 and updated on 7 December 2025

It now turns out that the OBR’s ‘long-run’ was 15 years, rather than 20, and that their time series began in 2016, and not in 2021 when they made the statement.

The statement thus included the presumption that GDP growth […]

Main numbers in IREF report ‘The United Kingdom as a sandbox for state-directed investment’

Cover page of the report

Published on 12th November 2025

We have put together a summary of the numbers contained in our report published in October 2025 by IREF – the Institute for Research in Economic and Fiscal Issues – entitled ‘The United Kingdom as a sandbox for state-directed investment: major increase in ‘shadow debt’, and in […]

The United Kingdom as a sandbox for state-directed investment – with a major increase in ‘shadow debt’, and in the ‘shadow taxation’ required to service that debt

Cover of our IREF report

Published on 26th October 2025

We have had a major report published by the Institute for Research in Economic and Fiscal Issues.

It is about the plans of the UK government to launch a decade-long programme of ‘investment’ in industry, infrastructure and Net Zero, greatly expanding the state’s role in the economy.

You can […]