The Eurozone’s Hidden Debt: A Dangerous legacy of EU governance – Politeia

As Italy’s oldest bank is poised to merge with its second largest, Bob Lyddon considers the failure of Eurozone governance and its potential consequences –   from which the UK is not immune

The UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement (2019) with its Northern Ireland Protocol remains one problematic matter of unfinished Brexit business.  Less widely known is the matter […]

Unicredit capital position before merger with Monte dei Paschi di Siena

It looks likely that Unicredit will be entering into a shotgun wedding with Mone dei Paschi di Siena (MPS). Unicredit will be compelled by the Italian political and monetary authorities to act as a White Knight.

MPS just failed its European Banking Authority Stress Tests but then it has been flat broke for years.

For a putative […]

No-one can know the size of the Brexit divorce bill, and it won’t be finalised until 2028, or for decades after that

Two of the key patagraphs in the Withdrawal Treaty itself

What are HM Treasury and the EU playing at? Their dispute rumbles on over whether the Brexit divorce bill is the EU’s estimate of £41bn or HM Treasury’s (or rather the Office for Budget Responsibility’s) of £35-39bn.

The discussion feels phoney. The quoted amounts cannot include all […]

How worried should we still be about the Brexit divorce bill?

This is the actual agreement…

Below is the text of an article we had published on CapX last week about the bunfight between HM Treasury and Brussels on the supposed size of the Brexit divorce bill: in short, neither of them can know for sure what it is because of the loopholes in the agreement on […]

The ECB and the PEPP: why are the credit ratings of EU/Eurozone public sector issuers inflated by as many as four notches?

The discussions and calls following the launch of my Bruges Group paper “The ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme” surfaced two areas for further examination.

One was the “pot calling the kettle black” issue: why is the UK structurally and materially in a superior position (even if we have the wrong direction-of-travel and share some of the […]

ECB and its PEPP programme: why are we doing a better job in the UK?

I have been in a lot of calls since the launch of my Bruges Group paper “The ECB’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme”.

Two issues keep coming up and so I have decided to write two notes on them.

This first one comes down to the pot not calling the kettle black. Or, put more elegantly, […]

Video – ECB Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme

Walk-through of newly-issued Bruges Group paper on the ECB PEPP programme – the epitome of the failure of the euro.

PLEASE CLICK THIS LINK TO PLAY…

EU borrowings for Next Generation EU contradict representations made to bond investors

There is ongoing dispute about the next EU budget of which the COVID-19 recovery package (“Next Generation EU” or “NGEU”) is a part, on the basis that the money should or should not be tied to adherence to EU diktats in other areas.

A focus on this area is convenient for the EU as a
distraction from […]

The Great EU Budget Deception – the 9th Brexit Paper published by Global Britain

We have had another paper in the Brexit Papers series published by Global Britain.

It is subtitled “The EU 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework and Coronavirus Recovery Fund: a dagger aimed at the Republic of Ireland, or a con trick on all EU citizens and on financial market investors?”

It is a con trick played […]

REPLACING THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT

Cover of the new report

I was priviliged to be asked to contribute the figures on the UK’s future financial liabilities to the EU under the current Withdrawal Agreement, and also to set out how the liabilities can better be dealt with – you can click here to download the full report