Published on 2nd June 2026

The consolidated scoresheet deriving from the analysis

Introduction

I recently made a presentation to a private business group in London entitled ‘Payment systems, the currencies they serve, and the prospects for de-dollarization’.

You can download the presentation here.

This was occasioned by various events and commentary: that several countries including Russia, China and India were setting up their own rival payment system to SWIFT, that tankers trying to go through the Straits of Hormuz would have to pay a toll to the Iranian regime in either Chinese yuan or bitcoin, and that either or both of these would signal the end of the US dollar as the global trade and reserve currency.

The EU has been making a lot of noise about the euro becoming a safe haven and a more important trading and reserve currency as the world polarises: they would say that, wouldn’t they?

Setting the scene

The presentation discusses payment types and how they clear and settle, and makes the linkage between a currency being trustworthy for holding, and its being adopted as a mainstream means of exchange.

Then it discusses what criteria a risk-free investment in a currency must meet in order to merit the designation ‘sovereign risk’, and what is the meaning of a currency having a ‘full faith and credit’ backing.

That grounding on a sovereign risk investment and that backing with a credible ‘full faith and credit’ constituency of individuals and businesses – together with the legal system under which the currency operates and the quality of the institutions that supervise it – amount to the Safety aspect of making an investment in a currency.

Liquidity and Return are the other two of the triumvirate of aspects.

Methodology

‘Safety’ is evaluated through these four dimensions:

  • Legal system
  • Monetary authorities
  • Sovereign debt
  • Full faith and credit

Five currencies are evaluated against each dimension:

  • US dollar
  • UK pound
  • euro
  • Chinese yuan
  • bitcoin

Scoresheet

The scoresheet is what appears at the start of this blog.

Conclusions

Now tell me you are willing to get paid in Chinese yuan or Bitcoin…

…unless you can instantly convert the proceeds into US dollars…

…for which you will need to be sure that there are market-makers for that trade, and a legal system and supervisors to resort to if it goes wrong, for both sides of the trade…

And tell me that de-dollarization is just around the corner.